April 3, 2020

The Future Of Bitcoin

I've been interested in Bitcoin for a while now... dollar-cost averaging by buying small amounts each month. However, my interest has peaked with Covid-19 and government stimulus programs.

Does Bitcoin become the world's reserve currency?

Three things need to happen for currencies to fail:

  1. The currency is not pegged to anything, e.g., gold.
  2. Government spending exceeds tax revenue.
  3. The debt being issued has no yield.

Right now, all three of the above are true.

There's an economic idea shared by many, called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Essentially, MMT suggests that governments are not constrained by revenues, and can spend as much as they want without needing tax revenue or borrowing for spending. They are not constrained by revenues because they can print as many dollars as they need. The U.S., U.K., Japan and Canada and other countries are currently employing MMT.

Now, either you believe in MMT... or you don't. If you don't, you believe in BTC and/or gold.

I don't believe in MMT. A person or business cannot outspend revenues. Any business that would do this, will be out of business quickly.

MMT has been working for governments for a while, but I think the gig is up.

What creates wide-spread adoption of Bitcoin?

  1. Time. Satoshi designed Bitcoin to expand quietly and create the network. Now, the tech infrastructure is improving and people are starting to see Bitcoin as sound monetary policy.
  2. Crisis. We may see fast-tracked adoption in Bitcoin because people might lose faith in banking and the current financial systems.

Okay. If you agree with me thus far... the next question is:
What is the business opportunity?